Guide · informational

The cash flow model to build before you restructure anything

Thirteen weeks, six lines, and one output: the exact weekly relief you need, which is also the number that tells you whether a restructure can work at all.

Drafted with AI assistance. Not yet independently checked. Nobody has verified the claims on this page against a source, so treat the figures and legal points as a starting point rather than as settled, and confirm anything you are about to act on. How we check things.

Build it before the first phone call. The model produces one number — total weekly relief required — and that number decides whether you are asking for a modification, a settlement, or something else entirely.

Thirteen weeks, because that is a quarter: long enough to contain a seasonal trough and a recovery, short enough that you can forecast receipts with something better than a guess.

The six lines

1. Opening cash.The actual balance across all operating accounts on the Monday you start. Not the book balance. Not including a line you have not drawn.
2. Receipts, week by week.From last year's bank statements for the same weeks, adjusted for what you know has changed. Weekly, not monthly — a monthly average hides exactly the problem you are modelling.
3. Payroll and payroll taxes.Separately from other costs, because these are the ones that cannot slip and because withheld payroll taxes carry personal exposure that ordinary trade debt does not.
4. Other operating outflows.Rent, suppliers, utilities, insurance, card processing. Weekly, on the week they actually leave the account.
5. Debt service, by position.Each position on its own line, at its actual frequency. A daily-remittance position is five debits a week, not a monthly figure divided by four.
6. Closing cash.Opening plus receipts minus everything. Carried to the next week's opening.

Then one more row underneath: cash floor. The minimum balance below which the business stops functioning — usually one payroll plus a buffer.

A worked model

Illustrative only —opening cash $14,000. Weekly fixed operating outflows $29,500. Two positions costing $6,100 a week combined. Receipts following a seasonal dip:

Weeks 1 to 13 receipts: 42,000 / 38,000 / 35,000 / 31,000 / 29,000 / 27,000 / 26,000 / 26,000 / 28,000 / 32,000 / 37,000 / 41,000 / 44,000.

Weekly outflow is $35,600 throughout. Closing balances:

  • Week 1: $20,400
  • Week 2: $22,800
  • Week 3: $22,200
  • Week 4: $17,600
  • Week 5: $11,000
  • Week 6: $2,400
  • Week 7: −$7,200
  • Week 8: −$16,800
  • Week 9: −$24,400
  • Week 10: −$28,000 (the trough)
  • Week 11: −$26,600
  • Week 12: −$21,200
  • Week 13: −$12,800

With a cash floor of $5,000, the model says three things immediately.

When it breaks.Week 7 is the first week below the floor, so you have six weeks to act and the conversation has to start now.
How deep.The trough is $28,000 negative against a $5,000 floor, so $33,000 of cumulative relief is needed by week 10.
How much per week.$33,000 over the ten weeks to the trough is $3,300 a week.

What the output tells you

Compare $3,300 a week against total weekly debt service of $6,100.

You need to cut debt service by 54% for ten weeks. Expressed as remittance: combined daily of $1,040 must fall to about $380 a day.

That is a large but not absurd request. It is achievable through a restructure — and now you know it before you ask, which means you can propose the right number rather than discovering mid-negotiation that the number you asked for was never going to be enough.

Run the same model with a smaller cut and the answer changes. A reduction of $200 a day per position — $1,000 a week of relief — takes the trough from −$28,000 to −$18,000. Still below the floor. A $300-a-day cut, $1,500 a week, takes it to −$13,000. Still below the floor. Only a cut of roughly $660 a day across both positions closes the gap.

This is the single most valuable thing the model does: it tells you which proposals are arithmetic non-starters, before you spend credibility on one.

When the model says a restructure cannot fix it

Add up the thirteen weeks. Total receipts $436,000, total outflows $462,800, net −$26,800 over the quarter, of which debt service is $79,300 — about 18.2% of receipts.

If eliminating debt service entirely still leaves the quarter negative, no restructure works, and the honest options are different: new capital, a sale, a settlement, or a wind-down. Finding that out from a spreadsheet is much cheaper than finding it out after signing a modification with an acknowledged balance and a released claim.

Rules for building it honestly

Use last year's actual weeks.Not a plan, not a budget.
Assume receipts are late.If your customers pay in 45 days, model 50.
Put every position on its own line.Aggregating debt service conceals which one to attack.
Model the week a payment falls, not the week it is due.A rent payment that clears on the 3rd belongs in that week.
Do not model a facility you have not been approved for.The commonest way these models lie is a "new funding" line in week 4.
Show the bad weeks.A creditor who sees a thirteen-week forecast in which everything improves smoothly stops reading.

How to present it

One page. Weeks across, six lines down, closing balance highlighted, the floor drawn as a row. Underneath, three sentences: when it breaks, how deep, how much weekly relief is required. Then the proposal, expressed in the same units the creditor uses — dollars per business day, not percentages.

Attach the bank statements the receipt history came from. A forecast with a verifiable base is a different document from one without.

What to do this week

Pull twelve months of statements. Extract weekly deposits. Build the six lines. Find the week it breaks and the depth of the trough. Convert the trough into a weekly relief figure and then into a per-position daily remittance. Only then pick up the phone.

Rebuild it every Monday during a workout, with actuals replacing forecasts. The model's value is not the forecast; it is that you notice a week early when the forecast stops being true.

What relief a creditor will agree to, and what any document does, depends on your contracts and on the law of the state they select. This describes how to build the model and is not legal or financial advice about your situation.

Where this applies

Related questions

What does this guide cover?

Thirteen weeks, six lines, and one output: the exact weekly relief you need, which is also the number that tells you whether a restructure can work at all.

Which funding products does this apply to?

Merchant Cash Advance, Working Capital, Term Loan, Revenue-Based Financing. Each has its own page listing the funders in this directory that offer it and what each one publishes about its terms.

Are the figures here quotes?

No. Every worked example is labelled illustrative and exists to show the arithmetic. What a particular lender charges is on that lender's page, where it publishes it at all.

Who writes this?

The Find Me Funders research desk. Some drafting is AI-assisted, and every page that is says so at the top, including whether a person has checked its claims yet.

How do I know a figure here is right?

Where a page carries the green notice, its claims were checked against the sources listed at the end and a reviewer is named. Where it carries the amber one, nobody has verified it yet and you should confirm anything you plan to act on.

Are the examples real deals?

No. Every worked example is labelled illustrative and exists to show the arithmetic. What any particular lender charges is on that lender's page, where it publishes it.

Why do you never say what a typical rate is?

Because we cannot source it. A market average assembled from lenders who do not publish prices is a guess with a decimal point on it. Where a lender publishes a figure, we show that figure and say where it came from.

Is this financial or legal advice?

No. It is general information about how these products work. Outcomes depend on your contract and your state, and a lawyer or accountant licensed where you are is the person to ask about your situation.

Can I reuse this content?

Quote a paragraph with a link back. Do not republish whole articles.

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